An exponential growth model for gold price prediction with levenberg-marquardt technique

Hui, Ting Teo and Kek, Sie Long (2024) An exponential growth model for gold price prediction with levenberg-marquardt technique. In: ENHANCED KNOWLEDGE IN SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY.

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Abstract

Gold has been a valuable commodity for centuries, and its price exhibits considerable up-and-down movement over time. So, the prediction of gold prices becomes a critical issue in investment. This paper proposes an exponential growth model for predicting gold selling prices. We introduce a loss function to represent the model sum of squared errors and derive the first-order necessary condition. The Levenberg-Marquradt technique is applied to update the model parameter value during the iteration procedure. When convergence is achieved, the iterative solution gives the optimal parameter to the model. Thus, a best-fit curve to the actual gold selling prices is resulted. In addition, we modify the prediction solution by adding the previous actual price into the analytical solution. So, the fluctuation behaviour revealed by gold-selling prices can be well predicted. Moreover, the simple moving average and nonlinear regression are used to predict gold selling prices and their performance measures are compared with the performance measure of the exponential growth model. The simulation results show that the exponential growth model presents a high prediction accuracy. In conclusion, using the exponential growth model to predict gold selling prices demonstrates a highly satisfactory prediction result

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Exponential Growth, Gold Prices, Loss Function, Levenberg-Marquardt Technique, Gold Price Prediction
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > FAST
Depositing User:	Mrs. Sabarina Che Mat
Date Deposited:	29 Apr 2025 02:40
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2025 02:40
URI:	http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/12227

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