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An analysis of time series for the prediction of Barramundi (ikan siakap) price in Malaysia

Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah and Ong, Chong Hau and Abdullah, Abdul Wahab and Sufahani, Suliadi F. and Azmi, Nur Amira (2017) An analysis of time series for the prediction of Barramundi (ikan siakap) price in Malaysia. Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences (FJMS), 102 (9). pp. 2081-2093. ISSN 09720871

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Abstract

The price of Barramundi in Malaysia is crashed due to the dumping of Barramundi from oversea with lower quality. In this study, the future Barramundi price is predicted so that the predicted price can be used to plan what action should be taken in order to reduce the cost of landing and production of Barramundi. Then, the price of Barramundi will be competing with imported price from oversea countries. The data were taken from Department of Fisheries Malaysia. The data for Barramundi price are in a trend pattern. In this study, two methods have been applied which were autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters. The performance of both models was measured using mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The MSE and MAPE values will be compared for both methods in choosing the best model. The best model was ARIMA model since the values of MSE and MAPE are lower compared to the values of MSE and MAPE for Holt-Winters model. So ARIMA model is used to forecast the Barramundi price.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Barramundi; ARIMA; Holt-Winters; MSE, MAPE
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > Department of Mathematics and Statistic
Depositing User: Mr. Mohammad Shaifulrip Ithnin
Date Deposited: 30 Apr 2019 01:07
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2019 01:07
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/10981
Statistic Details: View Download Statistic

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