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Forecasting of water consumptions expenditure using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA

Razali, S. N. A. M. and Rusiman, M. S. and Zawawi, N. I. and Arbin, N. (2017) Forecasting of water consumptions expenditure using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA. In: International Seminar on Mathematics and Physics in Sciences and Technology 2017 (ISMAP 2017), 28–29 October 2017, Hotel Katerina, Malaysia.

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Abstract

This study is carried out to forecast water consumption expenditure of Malaysian university specifically at University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM). The proposed Holt- Winter’s and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast the water consumption expenditure in Ringgit Malaysia from year 2006 until year 2014. The two models were compared and performance measurement of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) were used. It is found that ARIMA model showed better results regarding the accuracy of forecast with lower values of MAPE and MAD. Analysis showed that ARIMA (2,1,4) model provided a reasonable forecasting tool for university campus water usage.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > Department of Mathematics and Statistic
Depositing User: Mr. Mohammad Shaifulrip Ithnin
Date Deposited: 31 Jul 2019 01:00
Last Modified: 31 Jul 2019 01:00
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/11396
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