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Determining the forecasting model on inventory, planning and control for the laser fastec lamination core production

Bon, Abdul Talib and Ismail, Shahrul Azman Determining the forecasting model on inventory, planning and control for the laser fastec lamination core production. In: International Conference on Technology, Science, Social Sciences and Humanities 2012 (TESSHI 2012), 14-15 November 2012, Langkawi, Kedah.

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Abstract

The scope of study is to determine the forecasting method that can be used for company X to their product model 2.55x13. The production output of this model takes the history of production chart of company X from January 2007 until July 2011. These data’s will be analysed by using three types of forecasting models such as naive model data with trend, three months moving average model and exponential smoothing model with smoothing constant 0.1 and 0.5. These three types of forecasting models will be analysed one by one and comparing the suitability of each other by determining the best forecasting model which can be implemented to minimize the material purchase and stock inventory will be the objective for this study. Each of the forecasting models will also calculate the overall forecast error by using mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) as a comparison to choose the forecasting model that can give the impact to lower overall error. The entire data will be summarised from the calculation by using Microsoft excel to input each forecasting formula. Results of the study found that the exponential smoothing with smoothing constant α = 0.5 is the most suitable forecasting model that can be applied to make forecasting for the laser fastec lamination core model diameter 2.55x13 for the company X. The use of this model would enable control of the production output and at the same time the purchase of raw material can be controlled according to the needs of production when it is necessary to be produced.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting; exponential smoothing model;mean absolute percent error;laser fastec lamination core;production
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Technology Management and Business > Department of Technology Management
Depositing User: Ms Aryanti Ahmad
Date Deposited: 10 Dec 2012 08:28
Last Modified: 10 Dec 2012 08:28
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/3347
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