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Demand forecasting with univariate times series model: a case study in electric and electronic manufacturing company

Ramlan, Rohaizan and Atan, Siti Anisah and Ismail, Siti Norziah and Wong , Mu Xin (2013) Demand forecasting with univariate times series model: a case study in electric and electronic manufacturing company. In: Proceedings the 2nd International Conference on Global Optimization and Its Applications 2013 (ICoGOIA 2013) , 28-29 August 2013, Melaka, Malaysia .

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Abstract

The Electric and Electronic manufacturing companies are among industries that need forecasting the most. The need to forecast in the management and operations is increasing in order to achieve its objectives. The company currently facing the problem of over produce inventory for some of the product and the problem might be due to inconsistent demand. Thus, data pattern of inventory demand need to identify before choosing the forecasting methods. Comparison among methods was conducted to determine the best method for the company in order to prepare them for future inventory. This study was conducted using the case study method. The data of demand for one of the product series for five consecutive years were collected and forecasted using Risk Simulator software for the purpose of this study. From the result, the selected forecasting methods to implement were: Single Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Double Moving Average, Regression Analysis and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). It were selected based on the trend and cyclical data patterns. The finding revealed that, Single Moving Average method is the best forecasting method when comparison forecast accuracy is made

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: demand forecasting; electric and electronic manufacturing company; univariate times series
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions: Faculty of Technology Management and Business > Department of Production and Operation Management
Depositing User: Normajihan Abd. Rahman
Date Deposited: 25 Oct 2013 03:25
Last Modified: 21 Jan 2015 08:16
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/4437
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