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Forecasting of crude palm oil (CPO) and soybean oil (SBO) prices using group method of data handling

Basheer, Huma and Khamis, Azme (2016) Forecasting of crude palm oil (CPO) and soybean oil (SBO) prices using group method of data handling. In: Proceedings of 4th International Science Postgraduate Conference 2016 (ISPC2016), 22–24 February 2016, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudai, Johor.

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Abstract

This study investigates the forecasting of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Soybean Oil (SBO) prices using group method of data handling (GMDH). The GMDH is a method of developing nonlinear systems with many input variables which work as the time series forecasting. Monthly oil prices data were taken from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) into consideration from 1983 to 2014. The performance of the forecast values of GMDH was applied to predict the prices of CPO and SBO. The performance measurement of CPO and SBO for both training data and forecasting data are evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R). The coefficient of correlation (R) for both type of data are evaluated that the flow predicted correlate with the flows observed, as R value close to unity indicates a satisfactory result. From the simulation, GMDH has simulated and demonstrated the powerful problem solving ability and good coefficient of correlation for both of data.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: GMDH; crude palm oil (CPO); soybean oil (SBO); forecasting; coefficient of correlation
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD1401-2210 Agriculture
Divisions: Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > Department of Mathematics and Statistic
Depositing User: Mr. Mohammad Shaifulrip Ithnin
Date Deposited: 13 Aug 2018 03:25
Last Modified: 13 Aug 2018 03:25
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/8671
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