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Predictive modeling of pelagic fish catch in Malaysia using seasonal ARIMA models

Bako, Hadiza Yakubu and Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah and Kane, Ibrahim Lawal and Matias-Peralta, Hazel Monica (2013) Predictive modeling of pelagic fish catch in Malaysia using seasonal ARIMA models. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2 (3). pp. 136-140. ISSN 23285648


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Fish catch prediction is an important problem in the fisheries sector and has a long history of research. The main goal of this paper is to create a model and make predictions using fish catch data of two fish species. Among the most effective and prominent approaches for analyzing time series data is the methods introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study we applied the Box-Jenkins methodology to build Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for monthly catches of two fish species for a period of five years (2007 – 2011). The seasonal ARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0, 0, 1)12 and SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)12 models were found fit and confirmed by the Ljung-Box test and these models were used to forecast 5 months upcoming catches of Trichiurus lepturus (Ikan Selayor) and Amblygaster leiogaster (Tambun Beluru) fish species. The result will help decision makers to establish priorities in terms of fisheries management.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Box-Jenkins; SARIMA; Ljung-Box; fish catches; Trichiurus Lepturus, Amblygaster Leiogaster
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > Department of Mathematics and Statistic
Depositing User: Mr. Mohammad Shaifulrip Ithnin
Date Deposited: 13 Aug 2018 03:37
Last Modified: 13 Aug 2018 03:37
URI: http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/9374
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