Prediction of Rainfall Trends Using Forecasting Approaches Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis

Kismiantini, Kismiantini and Shazlyn Milleana Shaharudin, Shazlyn Milleana Shaharudin and Ezra Putranda Setiawan, Ezra Putranda Setiawan and Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa, Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa and Muhamad Afdal Ahmad Basri, Muhamad Afdal Ahmad Basri and Hairulnizam Mahdin, Hairulnizam Mahdin and Salama A. Mostafa, Salama A. Mostafa (2024) Prediction of Rainfall Trends Using Forecasting Approaches Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis. Journal of Intelligent Systems and Internet of Things, 11 (1). pp. 29-43.

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Abstract

Advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things provide an integrated platform for weather focusing, including rainfall and flood prediction. Large rainfall data frequently contain noise, which can be difficult to analyze using a standard time series model due to violated assumptions. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a model-free time series analysis method that is widely used. This study aims to predict the rainfall trends in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, using the Recurrent SSA (SSA-R) and Vector SSA (SSA-V). The SSA-R forecasts using the recurrent continuation directly with the linear recurrent formula, while the SSA-V is a modified recurrent method. This study used 50 years of monthly rainfall data (1970-2019) from 25 stations in the special region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The SSA steps for forecasting rainfall data include decomposition (embedding and singular value decomposition), reconstruction (grouping and diagonal averaging), and evaluating the SSA model using w-correlation (if w-correlation is close to zero, returning to the decomposition stage; otherwise, continue the process), forecasting, evaluating the forecast results using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error, r, and mean forecast error, and finally selecting the best model (either the SSA-R or SSA-V model). The results showed that the SSA-R performed better than SSA-V due to the smallest RMSE in the dry, rainy, and inter-monsoon seasons. The SSA-R model’s forecast results revealed faint, constant patterns for the dry, and rainy seasons and an increasing pattern for the inter-monsoon season. The novelty of this study is to compare the performance of the SSA-R and SSA-V models in the large rainfall data in the special region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Singular Spectrum Analysis; Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis; Vector Singular Spectrum Analysis; Internet of Things; Rainfall Patterns; Yogyakarta
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology > FSKTM
Depositing User:	Mr. Mohamad Zulkhibri Rahmad
Date Deposited:	13 May 2024 11:48
Last Modified:	13 May 2024 11:48
URI:	http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/id/eprint/10922

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