Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

Che-Him, Norziha and Kamardan, M. Ghazali and Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah and Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus and Mohamad, Mahathir and Kamaruddin, Nafisah @ Kamariah (2017) Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia. In: ISMAP 2017, October 28, 2017, Batu Pahat, Johor.

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Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non�climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Applied Science and Technology > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Depositing User: Mr. Abdul Rahim Mat Radzuan
Date Deposited: 24 May 2022 01:33
Last Modified: 24 May 2022 01:33

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